Germany’s logistics sector could already overtake the “usual suspects” steel and chemical industries as the largest electricity consumer by 2035. This was determined by the Institute for Automotive Engineering (ika) - RWTH Aachen University in a model-based analysis.

The electrification of the logistics sector could lead to electricity consumption by 2045 that is more than eight times higher than today.

The ika prepared a white paper on this complex topic on behalf of the DSLV Federal Association for Freight Transport and Logistics. The gross electricity demand of the German logistics sector was modelled for the period from 2025 to 2045.

But how quickly will logistics companies electrify their fleets? Three scenarios in the study describe “different transformation speeds,” as stated in the conclusion, but—and this is important—“… no fundamentally different end states.”

Let us focus on the middle, so-called “baseline scenario”: logistics in Germany is expected to reach 186 terawatt hours per year (TWh/a) by 2045, compared to a demand of 22 TWh/a in 2025.

Reasons for the increasing demand for electricity:

• The main driver is road freight transport with growing electric truck fleets. This development is NOT linear: “Before 2030, growth remains moderate; from the mid-2030s onwards, large BEV fleets determine the demand curve,” according to the study authors. The increase is significant: from 4 TWh/a in 2025 to around 156 TWh/a by the end of the study period.
• Logistics buildings will require around 22.3 TWh/a in 2045 (up from 13 TWh/a) for heat pumps and cooling systems.
• Rail freight transport continues to grow steadily but remains secondary overall, increasing from 5 TWh/a to 8 TWh/a in 2045.

“The electrification of vehicle fleets is a key component in the technology mix to decarbonise freight transport in an ecologically and economically sustainable way,” explains Prof. Dr.-Ing. Lutz Eckstein, Director of the ika RWTH Aachen University.

One thing is certain for him: “The available rooftop area on logistics buildings offers photovoltaic potential for self-generation, but it is not sufficient to cover this demand more than partially.” According to the study, installed rooftop PV capacity on logistics properties increases from around 5.8 gigawatts peak (2025) to approximately 22.6 gigawatts peak in 2045.

Source: Institute for Automotive Engineering (ika) - RWTH Aachen University